A small, opinionated set of charts where each metric earns its place by being a credible signal for the major tops and bottoms of the ~4-year market cycle.
Bitcoin cycle risk from price structure alone: log price against a 0–1 composite of three moving-average signals, the Mayer Multiple, the Pi Cycle Top ratio, and the 200-week MA multiple. Toggle any line in the legend to see how the chart adapts.
Bitcoin cycle-top risk read from price alone: how much of the last 60 days price has spent pinned within 20% of its all-time high. Sustained time at the highs is the euphoric distribution zone that marks a top, and because every top sets a fresh high, this reads hot at each cycle's peak whether the cycle ran tall or muted. It stays cold everywhere else, including bear-market relief rallies.
