Metric glossary
Every metric behind the cycle charts, defined in plain language: what it is, how it's computed, and what it has meant at prior cycle tops and bottoms. The methodology is open, with each formula and input spelled out, so you can check the arithmetic rather than trust a persona.
Overall Cycle Risk
MarketOn-Chain Metrics Historical Risk
BTCPuell MultipleDaily bitcoin issuance value measured against its own yearly average, a read on how stretched miner revenue is versus normal.MVRVBitcoin's market value divided by its realized value, or aggregate cost basis: how far price sits above or below what the average coin last moved at.MVRV Z-ScoreA standardized version of MVRV: the gap between market cap and realized cap, expressed in standard deviations.Supply in ProfitThe share of circulating bitcoin whose last-moved price sits below the current price, that is, the percentage of supply 'in profit'.RHODL RatioA realized-cap HODL-wave ratio (Philip Swift) that weighs the value of very young coins against coins held one to two years, adjusted for the age of the market.Terminal PriceAn overhead cycle-top price ceiling (James Check) derived from coin-days destroyed; price rises to meet it near tops and sits far below elsewhere.
Hashrate Valuation Risk
BTCPrice-Structure Risk
BTCMayer MultipleBitcoin price relative to its 200-day moving average, a simple and durable distance-from-trend oscillator.Pi Cycle TopThe classic Pi Cycle Top indicator as a continuous ratio: the 111-day average against twice the 350-day average, a signal that is precise at tops.200-Week Moving Average MultipleBitcoin price relative to its 200-week moving average, a durable cycle-bottom floor.
Peak Dwell Risk
BTCSocial Risk
MarketWikipedia PageviewsAggregate Wikipedia pageviews for a basket of crypto topics, a low-noise read on public curiosity.Crypto Search InterestGoogle search interest for a basket of crypto terms, including retail-onboarding queries like 'how to buy bitcoin'.Reddit Subscriber GrowthThe velocity of subscriber growth across the main crypto subreddits, standardized against its own multi-year baseline.Coinbase App Store RankHow high the Coinbase app sits in the US App Store's Finance category, a price-free read on retail's rush to open a trading account.X Analyst Follower GrowthHow fast a curated set of crypto analysts on X are gaining followers, standardized against its own multi-year baseline.
ETF Flow Risk
BTCAnalytics, not advice. These metrics describe where market data sits in the cycle; they are not trading signals, price targets, or financial advice.