On-Chain Risk
BTCChartA composite of six Bitcoin on-chain metrics covering valuation, profit, and coin-age, all put on a single 0–100 risk scale.
What it is
The On-Chain Risk chart combines six blockchain-derived metrics: Puell, MVRV, MVRV Z-Score, supply in profit, RHODL, and Terminal Price. Each is normalized to a 0–1 risk score, then combined by weighted average. It is the most direct Bitcoin-native read of the cycle, and the free chart on the site.
How it's computed
Compute each metric over its full history, normalize each to a common 0–1 risk scale, and take a weighted average. Puell, MVRV, supply in profit, and RHODL carry full weight, while MVRV Z-Score and Terminal Price hold a trace weight because their readings have decayed at recent cycle tops.
How to read it
Bottoms settle into a flat band under 0.1; tops reach 0.7–0.9 and come in lower each cycle. The current read tracks published reference charts closely.
At prior cycle extremes
Cycle bottoms have printed under 0.1 (2015, 2018, 2022) and tops between 0.7 and 0.9 (2017 higher than 2021), matching public references.
Related
Analytics, not advice. These metrics describe where market data sits in the cycle; they are not trading signals, price targets, or financial advice.