Terminal Price
BTCAn overhead cycle-top price ceiling (James Check) derived from coin-days destroyed; price rises to meet it near tops and sits far below elsewhere.
What it is
Terminal Price projects a moving overhead ceiling from the lifetime spending behavior of coins (coin-days destroyed). Price tends to climb toward this ceiling near cycle tops and trade far beneath it the rest of the time, so how close price sits to Terminal Price is what matters.
How it's computed
Compute Transferred Price, the coin-day-weighted average price, and multiply by 21 to normalize to the 21-million supply. Risk is then read from how close price sits to that ceiling (price divided by terminal price), not from the level itself.
How to read it
Price meeting the ceiling signals a top; price far below signals a bottom. This is the one metric whose stored value, a price level, differs from its risk driver, closeness to the ceiling, which is linear-normalized.
At prior cycle extremes
Price has converged on Terminal Price at cycle tops and sat well beneath it through bear markets.
Related
Analytics, not advice. These metrics describe where market data sits in the cycle; they are not trading signals, price targets, or financial advice.