What if you'd followed the risk levels?
Pick a starting point and a strategy, and see what following the Overall Cycle Risk would have done to your money, next to just buying every week and holding on. Every trade the simulation takes is listed below the chart, dated and priced, so you can audit the whole run.
Weekly DCA would sit at $2,526,705.
Free simulations stop at May 31, 2026. The risk levels have kept moving since; Pro runs the simulation to its latest reading.
See today's readingEvery decision it took (36)
- ▲ Mar 23, 2017: bought $700 worth at $1,028 (risk 0.348)
- ▼ Dec 14, 2017: sold 35% of the stack at $16,603 (risk 1.000)
- ▼ Dec 21, 2017: sold 35% of the stack at $15,634 (risk 1.000)
- ▼ Dec 28, 2017: sold 30% of the stack at $14,289 (risk 0.967)
- ▼ Jan 4, 2018: sold 26% of the stack at $15,070 (risk 0.934)
- ▼ Jan 11, 2018: sold 27% of the stack at $13,187 (risk 0.943)
- ▼ Jan 18, 2018: sold 8% of the stack at $11,246 (risk 0.806)
- ▲ Nov 15, 2018: bought $409,850 worth at $5,539 (risk 0.189)
- ▲ Jul 18, 2019: bought $400 worth at $10,680 (risk 0.340)
- ▲ Aug 27, 2020: bought $200 worth at $11,315 (risk 0.346)
- ▼ Feb 4, 2021: sold 3% of the stack at $37,129 (risk 0.770)
- ▼ Feb 11, 2021: sold 13% of the stack at $47,893 (risk 0.840)
- ▼ Feb 18, 2021: sold 18% of the stack at $51,650 (risk 0.876)
- ▼ Feb 25, 2021: sold 23% of the stack at $47,568 (risk 0.911)
- ▼ Mar 4, 2021: sold 18% of the stack at $48,473 (risk 0.879)
- ▼ Mar 11, 2021: sold 22% of the stack at $57,847 (risk 0.905)
- ▼ Mar 18, 2021: sold 21% of the stack at $57,731 (risk 0.898)
- ▼ Mar 25, 2021: sold 15% of the stack at $51,547 (risk 0.854)
- ▼ Apr 1, 2021: sold 13% of the stack at $58,819 (risk 0.843)
- ▼ Apr 8, 2021: sold 13% of the stack at $57,963 (risk 0.843)
- ▼ Apr 15, 2021: sold 16% of the stack at $63,231 (risk 0.865)
- ▼ Apr 22, 2021: sold 15% of the stack at $51,882 (risk 0.858)
- ▼ Apr 29, 2021: sold 11% of the stack at $53,567 (risk 0.826)
- ▼ May 6, 2021: sold 22% of the stack at $56,527 (risk 0.904)
- ▼ May 13, 2021: sold 22% of the stack at $49,369 (risk 0.909)
- ▲ Jul 7, 2022: bought $3,837,532 worth at $21,651 (risk 0.199)
- ▲ Jul 11, 2024: bought $3,100 worth at $57,308 (risk 0.326)
- ▲ Sep 5, 2024: bought $800 worth at $56,113 (risk 0.335)
- ▼ Nov 14, 2024: sold 1% of the stack at $87,204 (risk 0.758)
- ▼ Nov 21, 2024: sold 6% of the stack at $98,546 (risk 0.793)
- ▼ Nov 28, 2024: sold 11% of the stack at $95,738 (risk 0.829)
- ▼ Dec 5, 2024: sold 20% of the stack at $96,950 (risk 0.893)
- ▼ Dec 12, 2024: sold 29% of the stack at $100,091 (risk 0.957)
- ▼ Dec 19, 2024: sold 29% of the stack at $97,697 (risk 0.959)
- ▼ Dec 26, 2024: sold 7% of the stack at $95,628 (risk 0.800)
- ▼ Jan 30, 2025: sold 4% of the stack at $104,987 (risk 0.777)
How the simulation works
Decisions happen once a week at that day's close, following the same Overall Cycle Risk reading the badge shows. That reading is cycle-calibrated: it judges each day against the hottest sustained level of the trailing four years, using only data available on that day, so a muted cycle's top still registers as hot. No leverage, no shorting; idle cash earns nothing. The underlying history is computed with a full-history transform, so this is a simulation of following the risk levels as they read today, not an audited trading record. Fees default to 0.25% per trade side and barely change the outcome; taxes depend on where you live and are not modeled. How the risk levels are computed →
Analytics, not advice. These simulations describe where market data sits in the cycle; they are not trading signals, price targets, or financial advice.