ETF Net-Flow Momentum

Since their launch in January 2024, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been the market's main demand channel: every share created or redeemed is real bitcoin bought or sold. This leg tracks the combined daily net flow across all of them, in dollars, and asks how unusual the current month of flows is compared with the recent past.

Sum each trading day's net creation and redemption flow across every US spot Bitcoin ETF, take a 30-day trailing average, then express that average as a z-score against its own trailing 2-year baseline. The z-score is signed: sustained inflows read positive, sustained outflows negative.

A high reading means a month of unusually heavy inflows, the demand euphoria that accompanies tops; a deeply negative reading means sustained redemptions. On the day of the October 2025 top the ETFs took in $1.2 billion and the reading ran hot; within ten days the daily flows had flipped negative, and the reading followed them down over the next month.

The record's hottest stretch is the November and December 2024 inflow wave around Bitcoin's break of $100k, hotter than the October 2025 top itself. The coldest readings came in the March 2025 flush and the post-top redemption waves. The ETFs have existed for a single cycle, so that is the entire track record.