ETF Flow Risk
BTCChartA 0–1 risk score of demand through the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, read from their aggregate daily net flows.
What it is
ETF Flow Risk reads the cycle from where the marginal buying actually comes from. The US spot ETFs have been Bitcoin's dominant demand channel since January 2024, and their net flows swing from record inflows near tops to sustained outflows in drawdowns. The chart turns that swing into a single 0–1 score.
How it's computed
Take the combined daily net flow across every US spot Bitcoin ETF, average it over 30 days, standardize it against its own trailing 2-year baseline, and normalize the result onto the 0–1 risk scale over the full flow history.
How to read it
High readings mark months of unusually heavy inflows, the demand side of a top; low readings mark sustained redemptions or exhaustion. Two things to keep in mind: the history only starts in January 2024, one cycle, and the reading scores demand waves rather than the exact top. The biggest wave on record came at the $100k break in late 2024, not at the October 2025 peak.
At prior cycle extremes
It read 0.78 on the day of the October 2025 top and fell to 0.09 within six weeks as the flows flipped to sustained outflows. Its all-time high sits in the November 2024 inflow wave, and its lows in the March 2025 flush and the 2026 drawdown.
Related
Analytics, not advice. These metrics describe where market data sits in the cycle; they are not trading signals, price targets, or financial advice.