Peak Dwell Risk

Peak Dwell Risk reads the cycle from one price-only fact: sustained time spent at the highs is what a euphoric top looks like. The valuation signals read how far price has stretched, so they decay as cycles top lower. This one reads only how long price has dwelt near its record high, and since every top sets a fresh high, it fires at each cycle's peak whether the cycle ran tall or muted.

Measure the share of the trailing 60 days price spent within 20% of its running all-time high, set to zero on any day price is not itself near the high, then put that 0–1 share on the risk scale over the full history from 2010. It needs no new data: the whole leg comes from the price history already on the site.

High readings mark price parked at the highs, the distribution zone of a top; the reading sits at zero everywhere else, including bear-market relief rallies. It is a top-only signal by design, so a cold reading is the normal state, not a bottom call. Two honest limits: a blow-off top that forms in weeks leaves no time near the high to detect, and a future cycle that tops below the prior all-time high would leave the signal cold.

It read 1.0 at the October 2025 top, 0.73 and 0.53 at the two 2021 peaks, and 0.60 at the December 2024 crescendo, and held at 0.0 through every bottom and both major bear rallies. It is strongest at exactly the muted, distributive tops where the older signals fade, and cold at the fast pre-2018 blow-off tops.