Time at Highs

A cycle top is where price sits parked near its record high for months while early holders distribute into the euphoria. This leg measures exactly that: the share of the recent past price has spent at the highs. Because it reads how long price dwells at the top rather than how far it has stretched, it does not fade as later cycles run more muted. A fresh all-time high resets its reference every cycle.

Take the running all-time high as of each day. Count the share of the trailing 60 days whose price sat within 20% of that high, then set the reading to zero on any day price is not itself within 20% of the high. The result is already a 0–1 score, so it enters the risk scale directly.

A high reading means price has been pinned at the highs for weeks, the distribution zone that marks a top. It stays at zero away from the highs, including bear-market relief rallies, since those never reclaim the old peak. One honest limit: a top that forms in a fast blow-off leaves no time near the high, so the pre-2018 spike tops read cold, and those are already caught by the valuation signals.

It read 1.0 at the October 2025 top, 0.73 and 0.53 at the two 2021 peaks, and 0.60 at the December 2024 crescendo, while every cycle bottom and both major bear rallies of 2019 and 2022 read 0.0. The fast 2011, 2013, and 2017 blow-off tops read cold, between 0.03 and 0.15.