Overall Cycle Risk

Overall Cycle Risk is the headline reading: one number from 0 to 100 for where the market sits in its roughly four-year cycle. It combines six signals: ETF demand flows (since 2024), on-chain valuation, social attention, price structure, and small traces of hash-rate valuation and how long price has stayed pinned near its record high. Together they run low near bottoms and high near tops.

Blend the component charts' composite risk scores into one weighted read, using whichever of them have data on a given day. ETF demand flows lead the blend in the era where they exist, with on-chain valuation and social attention close behind, and price structure, hash-rate valuation, and time-at-highs entering as smaller traces. Before the ETFs launched in 2024, the other legs carry the read on their own. The social leg is smoothed before it enters, so a one-day attention spike can't swing the reading. The headline number is then cycle-calibrated (see how to read it) and scaled to 0–100.

The headline number is cycle-calibrated: it measures each hot reading against the strongest stretch of the trailing four years, so a muted cycle's top still registers as hot. The bands are absolute risk levels, not percentiles: under 20 is Very Low, 20–40 Low, 40–60 Moderate, 60–75 High, and 75+ Very High. The chart plots the raw blend as a companion line beside the headline. On that raw line the peaks come in a little lower each cycle, which is exactly what calibration corrects for, so the headline is the fairer test of how hot the current cycle is running.

Across history, every cycle's peak has read High or hotter at its crescendo and every bottom has sat in a flat Very Low band. On the raw blend the peaks come in a little lower from 2011 through 2024, and the latest cycle crested at its late-2024 run toward $106k rather than at the October 2025 price high. Calibration puts those muted tops back on an even footing: on the headline the October 2025 high reads 79, where the raw blend left it at 60.