Price-Structure Risk

Price-Structure Risk reads the cycle from price alone, blending the Mayer Multiple, the Pi Cycle Top ratio, and the 200-week MA multiple. Because every leg is a function of price only, it shares no input with the on-chain metrics. That makes it an independent check on them, with no shared failure mode and no new data source to maintain.

Normalize each of the three moving-average signals to a 0–1 risk score and average them. None carries an upward drift, so no leg needs down-weighting, and every bottom holds in a flat band.

The three legs are chosen to cover both extremes: Pi Cycle is precise at tops, the 200-week multiple anchors bottoms, and the Mayer Multiple spans both. Every historical top has read at least 0.47 and every bottom at most 0.11.

The signal mirrors the on-chain read, with bottoms under 0.12 and tops between 0.7 and 0.9, from a fully independent price-only signal.