Social Risk

Social Risk blends four measures of retail attention into a single 0–1 read. The idea is simple: public engagement with crypto spikes near tops and goes quiet near bottoms, so the overall level of attention works as a sentiment proxy for cycle timing. It tracks the whole market rather than Bitcoin alone.

Normalize each source to a 0–1 score and take a weighted average, using whichever sources have data on a given date.

Every top reads clearly elevated and every bottom clearly low, at roughly a third of the top values. It is the noisiest of the attention signals, which is why it is smoothed before it enters the Overall Cycle blend, so a one-day spike can't swing the headline.

Social attention peaked at the 2017 and 2021 tops and went quiet at the 2018 and 2023 bottoms. Some sources run structurally warmer after 2024, which the chart leaves visible rather than weighting away.