Cap-to-Hashrate Deviation

Hash rate is the total computing power miners point at Bitcoin, and it moves slowly: hardware gets ordered after price rises, and once bought it keeps running through drawdowns. Dividing market cap by hash rate therefore asks what the market pays per unit of the security actually deployed.

Divide market capitalization by the daily network hash rate, average the ratio over 7 days to settle the noise in daily hash-rate estimates, then express it as a z-score against its own trailing 2-year baseline. The rolling window matters: hardware efficiency improves every year, so only the deviation from the recent norm is comparable across cycles.

Strongly positive readings mean price has sprinted ahead of the machines securing it, the setup at cycle tops; negative readings mean hash rate kept building while price fell, the accumulation setup. The signed value is normalized onto the 0–1 risk scale over full history.

The ratio pinned the April 2013 and December 2017 tops at the top of its scale and read both 2021 peaks hot. Every bear-market low since 2014 has sat in its cheap band, with the 2026 drawdown printing the deepest readings on record, driven partly by the post-ETF industrial mining buildout.